The Crossroads

The broadcast media are standing at a crossroads. Who will be the saviours and who will be the sacrificial lambs? In this era of mega-mergers, who will be left standing and what path will they take? Should we put a period after the dot-com boom or has the story just begun?

I have to admit it leaves my head spinning. But something tells me we should begin by looking back. I've had the good fortune to travel the country a number of times analyzing markets and meeting all manner of people. And I live in Toronto which, depending on your viewpoint, is either a high water mark or the drain to which many eventually come sinking and swirling downward.

I've seen mini-despots who, as people, are the definition of despicable. I've seen questionable contra, cocaine, philandering, cruel manipulation, belligerent ignorance and smug condescension from people who have to buy their friends. But I choose to think these people are in the minority.

The true spirits of radio and television are embodied in those people who have been touched by the magic of the media. Those whose eyes light up while recounting fond memories of listening to the crackle of hit songs on AM transistor radios or bold new music on FM or perched by the TV set watching the banquet of Saturday morning cartoons. Those who display a palpable excitement about a future that just keeps getting better. High definition TV, exciting new specialty channels, DAB radio receivers, streaming media on demand and computers poised to unite all of these media sources into one glorious control centre.

The consumer is being superserved. In my household (with my three small children), those Saturday morning cartoons have blossomed and we now have one set dedicated to 24-hour-a-day animation and children's programming. Whatever your hobby or pastime is, chances are that there will soon be a specialty channel just for you. Golf enthusiasts can stay glued to that 3 a.m. programme on the pros and cons of Big Bertha. For me it all began (and will end) with the simple magic of music that has brought me more happiness than any man has a right to. I can now cruise down the highway listening to the digital power of DAB. I can hook up a Wavefinder to my computer/sound system, listening to digital radio while cruising around the world on the net. One click and I can download an MP3 or some spectacular new software. I can watch music videos on specialty channels suited to a number of different tastes.

Clearly the consumers are the big winners. How will broadcasters fare? The major broadcast groups enjoy significant cost benefits from consolidation. Shared programming content can be an exciting new addition to smaller stations in particular. While sometimes controversial (I won't take sides), the ownership of cable delivery systems in addition to the channels being delivered can provide significant benefits. Even the quality of the community channels being delivered to consumers is growing by leaps and bounds.

On the radio front, DAB and the Internet are breathing new life into the industry. They add a new dimension to an old medium, offering potential new revenue sources, control of the all-important broadcast spectrum and the improved audio quality that must keep evolving in order to satisfy listener's demands.

On the down side, it is becoming very difficult for independent broadcasters to compete. While they are getting a good dollar for their properties from the big groups, it is sad to see them go.

On the advertising side, buying and selling is becoming much more complicated. Fragmentation makes improved research detailing the attributes of niche audiences a necessity. Those buyers and sellers who continue to cling for dear life to the old cost per point mentality will ultimately be washed downstream. Still, a more focused campaign can be both more effective and cost efficient. As specialty channels number in the hundreds and the Internet offers ever increasing variety, coming to terms with niche marketing is a matter of survival.

As we stand at the crossroads, there are many different paths, all leading to a bright future. The only broadcasters who will end up completely lost are those who insist on standing still.